From Billy:

In the ChessPublishing.com forum, an interesting line came up in the Keres Variation of the English opening. After, 1.c4 e5 2.g3 c6 3.d4 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 Bxd2+ 5.Qxd2 d6 6.Nc3 Nf6 7.Bg2 Nbd7 8.e3 Qe7 9.Nge2 0-0 10.h3 Re8 11.g4 Nb6 12.b3, a person by the alias of Akut said that an opponent of his played 12…d5 which was a novelty and he asked for help. So, I said, that with accurate play, the game is a draw. Then, GM Tony Kosten said that "Black is a long way from making a draw." However, my analysis (with the help of Fritz) seems to show the position is equal. What do you think?

A FORCED DRAW???

Silman replies:

I think that 12…d5!? makes a lot of sense and deserves more tests. Black is trying to blast things open and take advantage of White's uncastled King and slightly weakened kingside. However, whether this equalizes or not is far from clear. And even if it did lead to an equal game, why does that mean the game will end in a draw? Many people mistakenly feel that “equality” means “draw.” This might be true in some positions, but in most it just means that both sides have chances in an equal fight – whoever plays better will likely win. I think Grandmaster Kosten was trying to tell you that there's a lot of fight left; that there are many possibilities, and calling it a draw is more than a bit premature!

Using Fritz or some other program is a must in serious analysis nowadays, but believing everything it says is a huge mistake. Computers are notoriously weak in certain strategic situations. For example, they tend to favor Bishops over Knights even when the Knight is clearly the superior piece. They also give way too much credit to a material advantage, often overlooking the opponent's positional (or very long range tactical) compensation. To illustrate a computer's shortcomings, let's look at what Fritz has to say after the very first move in the line we're discussing: 1.c4 e5. If you take Fritz's opening book away and have it judge the position on pure understanding, my “old” Fritz 5 tells us that Black has a very small edge! Since it's more or less equal, if we used your logic we could now confidently say that the position after 1.c4 e5 is a forced draw, and both sides should just shake hands and bow to the inevitable.

Let's take a quick look at the line in question: 1.c4 e5 2.g3 c6 3.d4 Bb4+ 4.Bd2 Bxd2+ 5.Qxd2 d6 6.Nc3 Nf6 7.Bg2 Nbd7 8.e3 Qe7 9.Nge2 0-0 10.h3 Re8 11.g4 Nb6 12.b3 d5!?

Black tried 12…a5 in Dorfman - Razuvaev, Elenite, 1992. White got a clear advantage after 13.0-0 a4 14.Rae1 axb3 15.axb3 d5 16.c5 Nbd7 17.Ng3 Nf8 18.g5 N6d7 19.f4.

13.cxd5

Billy's main line, but White might also consider 13.c5!? with a very complex, tense game in store that has many secrets to uncover (Fritz does a song and dance about Black's chances, but you can't take that too seriously without lots of painstaking analysis).

13…exd4

Black can (and perhaps should) also consider the simple 13…Nfxd5.

14.Qxd4 Nfxd5 15.Nxd5 Nxd5 16.Bxd5 cxd5 17.Nf4

A FUN POSITION FOR WHITE

17…Qe4

Here Billy gives 17…Be6 18.Nxe6 fxe6, but why should White exchange his magnificent Knight for that “tall pawn” on e6? Instead the obvious 18.0-0 gives White excellent chances.

18.Qxe4

I think this is best, but 18.0-0!? is extremely interesting (and again, most positions here show Fritz way off in its initial evaluation). The structures after 18…Qxd4 19.exd4 Re4 20.Rfe1 Bd7 21.Rxe4 dxe4 are full of fight: 22.Rc1 Rc8 23.Rxc8+ Bxc8 24.Nd5 Kf8 25.Kg2 Be6 26.Ne3 with a position that offers chances only to White.

18…dxe4 19.Rd1 Be6 20.Rd6!

BLACK HAS NOTHING BUT PAIN TO LOOK FORWARD TO

White will destroy the enemy pawn structure with Nxe6 when Black has a miserable defensive task ahead: 20…Red8 (Or 20…Rac8 21.0-0 Rc2 22.Nxe6 fxe6 23.Rd7) 21.Rxd8+ Rxd8 22.Nxe6 fxe6 23.Ke2 Rc8 24.Rd1 Kf8 (24…Rc2+ 25.Rd2) 25.Rd7 Rc2+ 26.Kf1 Rxa2 27.Rxb7.